Research Viewpoint

Intesa San Paolo: The European Commission has left euro area growth forecasts unchanged

Intesa San Paolo : The European Commission has left euro area growth forecasts unchanged, while raising inflation estimates.

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Weekly Economic Monitor – 14 Februar 2020

Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department


The scenario seems a little optimistic, in particular for what concerns Germany.

The week’s market movers

In the euro area this week, the second readings of January inflation will be released: the Eurozone CPI is forecast at 1.4% from 1.3%, whereas the French index should be stable at 1.5%.

For what concerns the confidence surveys, focus will mostly be on the flash estimate of Eurozone PMIs for February, with the composite index forecast on the decline to 51.0 from 51.3, the manufacturing index at 47.6 from 47.9, and the services index at 52.2 from 52.5.

The Eurozone consumer confidence index could improve to -7.6 from -8.1 in February, whereas the Belgian central bank’s economic confidence index is expected to weaken -2.7 from -2.0.

Data releases in the United States this week will include the first set of manufacturing surveys for February, which should continue to outline little more than stagnant economic activity.

Housing starts and sales of existing homes in January should correct from the very high levels seen in December, explained by mild weather conditions at the end of 2019.

The minutes of the January FOMC meeting should confirm widespread consensus for the current interest rate pause and “close” monitoring of the effects of the n-cov epidemic.


Appendix
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Source: BONDWorld