Intesa Sanpaolo : COVID-19: in the European Union the decline of the contagion curve and the sharp acceleration of vaccinations are allowing a gradual reopening of the sectors affected by restrictive measures.
Weekly Economic Monitor – 07. May 2021
Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department
COVID-19: in the United States , vaccinations are at last having the upper hand over the variants of the virus and have given rise to a new decline of the contagion curve. The vaccination campaign is now entering a new phase, with daily administrations falling due to lower demand, rather than supply constraints. The achievement of herd immunity will call for greater efforts to immunise sceptics and residents in rural areas. However, vaccination coverage seems sufficiently widespread to guarantee control over potential new clusters, and to allow a normalisation of activity, leading to the consumption boom expected in the central quarters of the year.
The week’s market movers
In the euro area , the ZEW survey, the first referred to May, is expected to confirm the signals of a recovery of the German economy. March data on industrial production in Italy and in the euro area should record a marginal increase of output, set to gain momentum in the next few months. The second reading of April inflation in Germany and France should confirm the acceleration indicated by the flash estimate; the upward trend will likely continue in the next few months as well. Lastly, this week the European Commission will release its Spring Forecasts, that could revise up economic growth estimates for the euro area.
In the United States many important April data releases are lined up. The CPI and PPI should confirm the uptrend of inflation in the month, signalling that monthly changes are also moderately stronger than the trend observed over recent quarters. For what concerns activity, retail sales and industrial output are expected to grow at a sustained pace. Consumer confidence should improve again in May, in the wake of a further brightening of views on current conditions, with inflation expectations on an uptrend.
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