Bussola il punto Intesa Sanpaolo viewpoint

Intesa Sanpaolo : ECB to announce new measures

Intesa Sanpaolo :The acceleration of the crisis on the European financial markets has prompted the ECB to announce new measures just one week after its monetary policy meeting.

Abonnieren Sie unseren kostenloser Newsletter


Weekly Economic Monitor – 20 March 2020

Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department


The stepping up of the asset purchase programme will result in the Eurosystem absorbing considerably more than the net issuance of public debt in 2020. In the meantime, the advance estimate of the Ifo index shows that Germany is also heading for a rapid and violent recession, like Italy.

The same should be expected in many other European countries, albeit at a time lag. GDP contraction in 2Q could amount to around 5%.

The US economy is on the verge of a new recession .

Uncertainty on the outlook is growing, together with the reach of the Covid-19 pandemic and the transmission of its effects on the health, economic and financial fronts. Response from the fiscal and monetary authorities has been massive, and will probably increase in the weeks ahead.

The week’s market movers

In the euro area , economic confidence indicators will report a widespread plunge in sentiment among economic operators, triggered by the spreading of COVID-19 across the continent. We expect the advance estimate of the March manufacturing PMI to drop deep into contractionary territory and to hit the long-term low. The surveys should be consistent with a contraction in business, comparable only to the one recorded during the Great Crisis of 2008.

Many of the data releases lined up for this week in the United States will be influenced only in part by the effects of Covid-19 on the economy and the markets, but most information will generally be negative nonetheless. The main updates for the scenario will be consumer confidence and the flash estimates of PMI indices. Consumer confidence should worsen further, as also the Markit PMIs, with the services sector sending particularly negative indications. Personal spending in February should start to register a slowdown due to the initial effects of the epidemic, on the services sector in particular. Personal income, tied to the data already released as part of the monthly Employment Report, should be up by 0.3% m/m, providing only formal reassurance. The consumption deflators should be up by 0.1% m/m in terms of the headline index, and by 0.2% m/m for the core component. Orders of durable goods and new home sales should drop in February. The final estimate of 4Q GDP is now ancient history, should be confirmed at +2.1% y/y ann.


Appendix
Analyst Certification

The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

Important Disclosures
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

Valuation Methodology

Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

Source: BONDWorld