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Intesa Sanpaolo: Italy: the National Recovery and Resilience Plan will affect GDP positively

Intesa Sanpaolo : Italy: the National Recovery and Resilience Plan will affect GDP positively, in particular in the 2022-23 biennium.

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Weekly Economic Monitor – 14. May  2021

Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department


(based on our simulations, consistent with the more conservative scenarios assumed by the Government).

United States: who’s afraid of inflation? The surprising surge of the CPI in April was fuelled by temporary factors, but adds to the risks of mounting inflation expectations and makes the Fed’s communication task more complex.

The week’s market movers

In the euro area , the most anticipated data release will be the May PMI flash estimates, which should show a service-driven improvement in economic activity. Further positive signals should come from the European Commission consumer sentiment index, forecast higher thanks to the easing of lockdowns. Furthermore, this week will bring the second estimate of Eurozone GDP, that should confirm the -0.6% q/q contraction recorded at the beginning of 2021, and the advance reading of Dutch GDP, also expected to drop (-0.9% q/q) in the same quarter. Lastly, the final estimate of inflation in Italy and in the Eurozone in April should confirm the acceleration outlined by the flash estimates.

This week in the United States focus will be on the minutes of the FOMC meeting and on the first set of business surveys for May. The minutes should report widespread consensus, albeit not unanimous, on the need to await further data before starting to discuss tapering. The first set of May sector surveys should confirm that the recovery remains on track, although supply bottlenecks and upside pressures on prices linger. Among April data, housing starts and existing home sales should send moderately positive signals on the residential housing market, despite supply shortages and sharply higher prices.

 


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