Intesa Sanpaolo : A whole range of monthly indicators outlined a substantial recovery of global economic activity in June, after a first rebound in May.
Weekly Economic Monitor – 3 July 2020
Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department
The global manufacturing PMI is back at the same levels as in January.
United States – Another stronger than expected Employment Report: payrolls up by +4.8 million, unemployment rate at 11.1% in June. The improvement will probably continue at a more contained pace in the coming months.
The week’s market movers
In the euro area , industrial output data for May will be released in Germany, France and Italy, which should outline a strong rebound of economic activity in monthly terms after the March and April crashes.
Eurozone retail sales are also expected to recover in May, after plunging in the two precious months. In any case, both industrial production and retail sales data should remain well below pre-COVID levels.
This week, only a few data releases are lined up in the United States , and focus will be again on jobless claims, expected to stay on a very gradual downtrend. The non-manufacturing ISM should rise back in June, although the trend has already been outlined by the other advance survey readings. The core PPI in June should recover marginally, after contracting modestly in May.
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