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Intesa Sanpaolo : The new DEF points to a higher than expected deficit

Intesa Sanpaolo : Italy : The new DEF (Economic and Financial Document) points to a higher than expected deficit in 2021 and to a further rise in debt.

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Weekly Economic Monitor – 16. April  2021

Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department


European Central Bank: the next monetary policy meeting will bring no noteworthy changes. Rates, asset purchase programmes and forward guidance will remain unchanged. For the time being, the ECB has no interest at all in rocking the boat, despite the much more tangible prospects of a recovery.

COVID-19: United States on course to achieve herd immunity by July, despite the new strains and the J&J “pause”.

The week’s market movers

Rather quiet week in the euro area in terms of economic indicators releases. In theory, the main event of the week should be the ECB meeting, but the central bank itself has indicated that the next review of the monetary policy picture will take place in June: therefore, no particular changes should be expected. This month’s PMI surveys could outline a slight decline of the composite and manufacturing indices, as opposed to a roughly unchanged services index. Vice versa, the consumer sentiment index drawn up by the European Commission should improve again. Lastly, in France business confidence in the manufacturing sector is expected unchanged compared to the previous month.

Rather quiet week for data releases in the United States . Flash PMIs are expected to improve further, for the services sector in particular, sending indications of upwards pressures on prices and constraints on the supply side in manufacturing. New and existing home sales in March are expected to recover, after correcting in February due to adverse weather conditions, signalling excess demand in the existing homes segment in particular, due to the lack of properties for sale on the market.


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Source: BONDWorld