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Intesa Sanpaolo : US election: uncertainty is not over

Intesa Sanpaolo : In order to clinch 270 Electoral College votes, Trump must win in all four key swing states, whereas Biden needs only one.

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Weekly Economic Monitor – 06. November 2020 

Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department


At the time of writing, Biden is leading in Georgia, but the result has not yet been called. Even once all the delegates are awarded, Trump’s appeals in different States could leave the final outcome open possibly until early December, before the results are certified by the States. Congress will probably stay split, hindering the new administration’s activity. The President, whoever wins, may have some room for manoeuvre through executive orders, leaving his mark on foreign policy, international trade, energy and environmental policies.

Euro area: the restrictive measures introduced by many European countries to contain the epidemic could curb Eurozone GDP by between 1 and over 3 per cent in 4Q 2020.

The week’s market movers

Rather quiet week in the euro area in terms of short-term indicators. The German ZEW sentiment index, the first referred to the month of November, should correct markedly. The round of data on industrial output in September in the main countries will provide mixed indications, although prospects for the current quarter seem much less reassuring.

This week, only a few data releases are lined up in the United States . Focus will be on potential disputes on the outcome of the election. Macro data releases will include October prices. The CPI and PPI should be up by 0.2% m/m, with some downside risks weighing on the CPI forecast, both in terms of the headline and core components. Consumer confidence will be affected by the outcome of the vote, and should improve moderately (barring a serious institutional crisis on the validity of ballots) in November.


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