agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 05 – 09 September 2011 (Englisch)


Makroökonomische Daten – 05 – 09 September 2011 (Englisch)  .   

          Due out in the Euro area are the second reading plus breakdown of 2Q11 GDP for Italy and the Euro area, plus July industrial production in Germany and France. Both indicators should confirm that economic activity is slowing, despite a partial rebound in month-on-month IP data.
          Few data are due out in the United States next week. The trade balance for July should show a narrowing of the deficit; the non-manufacturing ISM for August should correct slightly, whilst remaining above 50. The Beige Book should signal a slowdown in activity in August too.

          Monday 5 September
          Euro area

            The final reading of the composite PMI for August might show a downward revision to at least 50.7 from the flash estimate of 51.1. The revision to the services index might be less pronounced than in manufacturing (revised to 49 from flash estimate of 49.7, positive for the first time in almost two years). The composite PMI is now consistent with Euro area GDP growth of just over zero.
            Retail sales are expected to be up 0.2% mom in July, vs. 0.7% mom in June. Based on the national data released to date, sales grew for the second straight month in France but remained flat in Germany and Spain. Sales should be on track for a slight recovery in 3Q11 (+0.2% qoq) after three quarters of falls.

          United States
            Markets closed for Labor Day.

          Tuesday 6 September
          Euro area

            The final reading of 2Q11 Euro area GDP growth should confirm the preliminary estimate showing a slowdown vs. the previous quarter (0.2% qoq, 1.7% yoy), with some downside risks. The breakdown might show private consumption stagnant, public spending down an estimated three-tenths and investments up around 0.5% qoq. Net exports should make a positive contribution of a couple of tenths, whereas inventories should contribute -0.1%. The sluggish growth is again due to investments and exports, and these two components might shrink further moving forward. The current quarter might show a small bounce in GDP, but leaving aside the qoq volatility, the leading indicators all signal that the Euro area is heading for a sharp slowdown, on the back of the debt crisis and the flagging international economy.

            Germany. Factory orders are expected to be down -1.5% mom in July, after three months of exceptional gains averaging over 2% mom April-June. The yoy growth rate might be little changed given the similar fall seen in July 2010. The surveys show German industry gradually running out of steam.

          United States
            The non-manufacturing ISM should ease to 51.5 in August from 52.7 in July. Activity in the services sector appears to be shrinking, according to the few regional surveys available, and the last week of the month was likely impacted by the effects of hurricane Irene. Overall, however, activity in the retail sector appears to be growing slightly, in line also with the indications of the ADP which signals growth in payrolls in the services sector, across businesses of all sizes.

          Wednesday 7 September
          Euro area

            Germany. Industrial production might bounce by 0.3% mom in July, recouping only part of the -1.1% mom recorded in June. Year-on-year output would slow to an eighteen-month low of 6.2% from 6.6%. The confidence indices signal a slowdown in productive activity, although this is still stronger than in other countries and a long way from a recession path.

          United States
            The Fed publishes the Beige Book. The end-July report signalled a slowdown in expansion: in September, in light of the findings of the manufacturing sector surveys, further signs of weakness are expected, compounded by signals of a transitory contraction in northeast seaboard regions affected by Irene. The Beige Book might give some details on the current slowdown, distinguishing between a crisis of confidence and actual demand-side weakness.
          The situation in respect of prices and the labour market should be unchanged.

          Thursday 8 September
          United States

            The trade deficit is expected to narrow to USD 51Bn in July from USD 53.1Bn in June. The forecast envisages a rebound in exports, after two months of falls largely due to reduced automotive production; auto and auto parts imports should be up sharply, while oil and other product imports should be relatively weak.

          Friday 9 September
          Euro area

            France. Industrial production is expected to be up 0.5% mom in July, recouping only some of the June fall (-1.6% mom). The series has been very volatile in recent months. Year-on-year growth would slow further from a feeble 2.3% to 2% yoy. PMI manufacturing output for France signals a sharp slowdown from the early spring highs, although for now the indicator
          still points to expansion.
            Italy. The final 2Q11 GDP growth reading should confirm the preliminary estimate of 0.3% qoq, 0.8% yoy, with some downside risks. The breakdown should show an upturn in business investments vs. a contraction in public spending and private consumption similar to previous quarters. The contribution from inventories and foreign trade should not be decisive. In any case, based on industrial production data, GDP, after the spring bounce, might slow in 3Q11.


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