agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten : 06 – 10 Februar 2012 (Englisch)

In the euro area focus will be on the developments of the crisis, and in particular on the outcome of PSI negotiations in Greece, and on the ECB meeting…..  


          The week will be rather scanty in terms of data releases: the only indicators due out will concern industrial output in the three major countries (and orders in Germany). Beyond monthly volatility, data should show that 2011 came to a particularly weak end in the industrial sector. It is too early as yet for the incipient recovery of some confidence surveys to translate into a change in the trend of real industrial activity data.
          Only a few data releases are scheduled this week in the United States. The trade balance should show a modest easing of the deficit in December, compatible with a marginally positive contribution to Q411 growth. February consumer confidence should be down marginally compared to the previous month.

          Monday 6 February
          Euro area

          Germany. Factory orders may show a rebound (+0.9% m/m) in December, after plunging by – 4.8% m/m the previous month. The year-on-year trend would in any case stay negative (- 0.9%). For several months now, surveys have been pointing to a slowdown in orders for Germany as well, and of foreign orders in particular, albeit to a lesser degree than in the rest of the euro area.

          Tuesday 7 February
          Euro area

          An informal Eurogroup meeting may be called this week to give the go-ahead to the Second AP for Greece. The meeting was originally scheduled for Monday, but it has been delayed ue the problems with the negotiations on the EAP. The pre-requisite for the meeting is an greement between Greece and the international creditors on the conditionality, which in urn requires a strong commitment by the three parties supporting the Papademos overnment. A second issue is the involvement of official holders of public debt, such the CB, to offset the shortfall of about 15Bn vs. the earlier estimates of the funding requirement.

          Germany. Industrial production is expected to have dropped by -0.3% m/m in December, fter a -0.6% m/m decline in November. However, the year-on-year rate should show a ebound (from 3.6% to 4.3%), although in Germany as well the industrial sector is expected o make a negative contribution to GDP in the closing quarter of 2011, due to a quarterly rop in output of around 1.5%.

          Thursday 9 February
          Euro area

          ECB meeting.

          Friday 10 February
          Euro area

          France. Industrial output is expected down by at least -0.5% m/m in December after the nexpected +1.1% m/m surge the previous month. Annual growth would drop to zero from .9% in November; this would be a low since the end of 2009. Confidence surveys keep ointing to a slowdown in orders and output, which will reap effects in the coming months. taly. Industrial production is expected to have contracted by -0.6% m/m in December, after coring a surprise +0.3% recovery the previous month. As a result the year-on-year rate would lunge even deeper into negative territory at -10.8% in unadjusted terms, and -5.1% djusted by workdays. This would mark a low since the end of 2009. The reading would be onsistent with an industrial output contraction of close to 3% q/q in the closing quarter of 011, which would signal a sharp drop in GDP as well over the same period.

          United States  In December the trade balance should show a deficit of USD 47.5Bn, after widening sharply to SD 47.8Bn (+2.8Bn) in November. In December exports should have accelerated, growing at  faster pace than imports. Import prices dropped by -0.4% m/m in December (petroleum – .4% m/m), as opposed to a -0.5% m/m decline in export prices. Data should result in a maller quarterly deficit than assumed by the advance GDP estimate, prompting a slight pward revision of growth estimates.

          Consumer confidence as surveyed by the University of Michigan in February (preliminary) hould correctly modestly, to 74 from 75 in January (final estimate). The survey should show a light deterioration in current conditions, with the index down from 84.2 in January. Inflation xpectations remain well-anchored (in January 3.3% on a 1Y horizon, 2.7% on a 5Y horizon)


          Appendix
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