agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 06 – 10 Juni 2011 (Englisch)

In the Euro area, producer prices are expected to be up 0.3% mom and 6.1% yoy, cooling from the high of 6.8% yoy recorded in March; upstream pressures in the production chain should    


          gradually subside. The breakdown of Euro area growth (+0.8% qoq / 2.5% yoy) in 1Q11 should show a more buoyant contribution from domestic demand and notably investments and inventories, amid a virtually unchanged contribution from international trade. Euro area retail sales are expected to recover by 0.6% mom in April. Manufactured goods orders in Germany are estimated at 0.3% mom after falling by 0.5% mom the previous month. Industrial production in April is expected to be up 0.2% mom in Germany and up 0.5% in France.

          The coming week is thin on data in the United States. The trade balance for April should show a small reduction in the deficit. Import prices are expected to be down in May, for the first time since June 2010. The Beige Book should confirm the moderate recovery in employment and a slight slowdown in activity.


           

          Monday 6 June

          Euro area
          – Producer prices are expected to be up 0.3% mom and 6.1% yoy, cooling from the high of 6.8% yoy recorded in March; upstream pressures in the production chain should gradually subside, barring fresh spikes in the oil price.



          Tuesday 7 June
          Euro area
          – Based on the data from Germany and France, we expect Euro area retail sales to shrink by 0.8% mom in April, following the 1.1% mom contraction seen the previous month. The outlook for consumption remains bleak given the scant support from labour income and the considerable uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic situation. A more vigorous employment dynamic and an upturn in private spending should get under way after the summer. In virtually all Eurozone countries, domestic spending might be squeezed by the fiscal tightening needed to restore the public finances to a sustainable path.
          – Germany. Manufactured goods orders are expected to be up 0.3% mom in April after 0.5% mom the previous month. Demand-side conditions remain extremely buoyant. However, in the last two months the PMI and IFO surveys have recorded a drop in new orders, albeit from historically high levels.


          Wednesday 8 June

          Euro area
          – The detailed 1Q11 estimate should confirm Euro area GDP growth of 0.8% qoq (2.5% yoy). We are looking for a contribution of 0.5% qoq from domestic demand after -0.1% qoq in 4Q10. Inventories should have contributed 0.3% qoq. Private consumption should be up 0.3% qoq, roughly in line with the trend in the previous quarter. We are looking for an acceleration in corporate investments to +1.3% qoq from 1.0% qoq before. Net exports should have contributed 0.3% qoq vs. 0.4% qoq in 4Q10.
          – Germany. Industrial production is expected to be up 0.2% mom in April, albeit at a slower pace than in 1Q11. The  indications from the sentiment surveys continued to point to output growth in April, but May should bring the start of a gradual cooling of growth.

          United States
          – The Beige Book, prepared for the FOMC meeting on 21-22 June, should confirm that the slowdown in growth in the manufacturing sector is partly transitory and due to the consequences of the Japanese earthquake. Some signs of an upturn in sales are expected following the softening caused by the hike in petrol prices in the first quarter. The labour market indications from firms should be in line with an ongoing moderate but positive employment dynamic. On prices, firms should report some improvement in pricing power. The general picture would be in line with the Fed’s official outlook and should not alter the strong chance of a pause in monetary policy following the end of QE2.


          Thursday 9 June

          Euro area
          – The ECB should leave rate unchanged at this week meeting. The focus will be on the rhetoric in the press statement to detect whether rates will be hiked again in July. We think the ECB will pull the trigger next month, but it may use a less binding rhetoric awaiting for a solution to the Greek crisis which will only be finalised at the end of this month.

          United States
          – The trade balance should show a moderate narrowing of the deficit, from USD 48.2Bn in March to USD 47.5Bn in April. Export growth should outstrip the positive trend in imports in April. On the imports front, the increase should be almost entirely due to rising prices, notably in energy, while volumes should be little changed and actually down in the auto sector (which recorded unsustainable volumes growth in March). Import prices grew by 2.2% mom in April (oil +7.2% mom). Export prices were up 1.1% mom in April, but volumes should be up ex auto, which will be held back by supply issues.


          Friday 10 June

          Euro area
          – France. Industrial production is expected to be up 0.6% mom in April after shrinking by 0.9% mom in March. The sentiment surveys signal some moderation in manufacturing activity in May, albeit from high levels.
          – Germany. The final estimate for May might revise the consumer price dynamic to -0.2% mom from 0.0% mom on the national measure, in line with the indications from the Laender. Thus, inflation would fall to 2.2% yoy on the national measure. Inflation on the harmonised measure should be confirmed at 2.45 yoy in May, vs. 2.7% yoy in April.

          United States
          – Import prices should be down -2.6% mom in May, the first fall since June 2010, caused by the correction in energy prices. In trend terms, prices growth should finally slow from 11.2% yoy in April to 9.9% yoy in May. The fall in the oil price (-11.3% mom) and the firming of USD (effective exchange rate: +2.1% between end-April and end-May) should be the chief causes of the cooling of import prices in May.


          Appendix
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