agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 07-11 November 2011 (Englisch)

Makroökonomische Daten – 07-11 November 2011 (Englisch) .   

          In the Euro area, the focus will be on the ECOFIN and possible additional details on the bailout plan. The industrial production data for September will show the first real signs of the crisis. We expect Italian output to plummet (-3.3% mom), while Germany and France should be down 1.0% mom. Spain publishes its advance 3Q11 GDP growth estimates, which we expect to show virtual stagnation in line with the indications from the Bank of Spain.
          The coming week is thin on data in the United States. The trade deficit in September should be little changed from August, resulting in an increased contribution to growth in the third quarter.
          Import prices should be down slightly in October.
          Monday 7 November
          Euro area

          – Retail sales are expected to be down 0.4% mom in September after a slightly positive performance in July and August. The figure would leave sales up 0.2% qoq in 3Q11 and would be consistent with modest aggregate consumption growth in the summer.
          – Germany. Industrial production should be down again in September (-0.9% mom), following the August contraction (-1.0% mom), which was due to a partial slowdown from an outstandingly strong July (due to the late closure of schools). In September, on the other hand, the contraction is more genuine and due to the decline in orders flagged up by the PMI and IFO. Given the strong entry into the quarter, German output should be up +2.4% qoq in 3Q11. GDP should therefore be up at least 0.4% qoq vs. 0.1% qoq in 2Q11. We expect German GDP to be broadly stagnant in 4Q11.

          Tuesday 8 November
          Euro area

          – Germany. German exports are expected to be down 1.0% mom in September after the robust gain in August. The sentiment surveys signal a slowdown in export orders at the end of the summer, and this trend gathered pace in October.

          Wednesday 9 November
          Euro area

          – France. The investment survey will offer valuable insight into the repercussions of the crisis on business spending decisions. We expect investment plans to be pared back significantly given the deteriorated demand-side conditions and the considerable uncertainty.

          Thursday 10 November
          Euro area

          – Italy. Industrial production is expected to correct by 3.3% mom in September after +4.3% mom in August, and the figure might even be revised down since it is likely skewed by the seasonal adjustment issues typical of this month. Production should be up 0.8% qoq, which would ensure a recovery in GDP in 3Q11 of at least 0.1% qoq. The trend in orders, coupled with the trend in inventories, signals that, at least through to year-end 2011 and early 2012, it is reasonable to expect a further slowdown in productive activity and GDP growth.
          – France Industrial production is expected to be down 1.0% mom in September after the summer gains. The sentiment surveys signal a sharp slowdown in orders and output over the summer months. The figure would still leave production up 1.5% qoq thanks to the strong entry into the quarter.
          – France. Consumer prices should be up 0.2% mom. Inflation is estimated at 2.3% yoy vs. 2.2% yoy before. On the harmonised measure, inflation is estimated at 2.4% yoy, unchanged from September. Pressures on consumer prices are largely exogenous and, in October particularly, should stem from food prices, since petrol prices suggest a zero or slightly negative contribution. French inflation should drop below 2% at year-end 2011. In 2012, the trend in consumer prices is expected to average 1.5% yoy, although we do not rule out upside risks since hikes in direct taxation are likely. The government has revised its growth estimates for 2012 to 1.0% from 1.75% before; an additional package of measures totalling some EUR 9Bn will be needed to meet the budget targets. The measures might be approved by year-end and might include a VAT hike.
          United States
          – Import prices are expected to be down -0.1% mom in October, after +0.4% mom in September. The expected fall should be due to the exceptionally sharp correction in the oil price at the start of the month, vs. the levels seen in the first half of September.
          – The trade balance is expected to widen moderately to USD -46.5Bn in September from USD – 45.6Bn in August, with exports slowing and a more subdued trend in imports. On the exports front, commercial aircraft should be up, following the steep fall in August. With regard to imports, oil should be broadly steady, while autos should slow as the trend stabilises in the wake of the Japanese earthquake. The BEA has assumed a widening of the real deficit in September: thus, in the event of stabilisation close to the August level, the contribution of the foreign channel to 3Q11 GDP growth would be larger than that implied in the advance estimate (0.2 pp).
          Friday 11 November
          Euro area

          – Spain. The 3Q11 advance estimate should show GDP stagnating after 0.2% in 2Q11. The stagnation might continue through to year-end and growth could even slip into recession territory in 2012. The indications on the public finances are hardly encouraging and the government that wins the 20 November elections will likely have to push through an additional package totalling around two percentage points of GDP. We expect GDP growth in Spain to amount, at best, to 0.3% in 2012 after 0.7% in 2011.

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