Makroökonomische Daten – 07-11 November 2011 (Englisch) .…
The coming week is thin on data in the United States. The trade deficit in September should be little changed from August, resulting in an increased contribution to growth in the third quarter.
Import prices should be down slightly in October.
– Retail sales are expected to be down 0.4% mom in September after a slightly positive performance in July and August. The figure would leave sales up 0.2% qoq in 3Q11 and would be consistent with modest aggregate consumption growth in the summer.
– Germany. Industrial production should be down again in September (-0.9% mom), following the August contraction (-1.0% mom), which was due to a partial slowdown from an outstandingly strong July (due to the late closure of schools). In September, on the other hand, the contraction is more genuine and due to the decline in orders flagged up by the PMI and IFO. Given the strong entry into the quarter, German output should be up +2.4% qoq in 3Q11. GDP should therefore be up at least 0.4% qoq vs. 0.1% qoq in 2Q11. We expect German GDP to be broadly stagnant in 4Q11.
Tuesday 8 November
– Germany. German exports are expected to be down 1.0% mom in September after the robust gain in August. The sentiment surveys signal a slowdown in export orders at the end of the summer, and this trend gathered pace in October.
– France. The investment survey will offer valuable insight into the repercussions of the crisis on business spending decisions. We expect investment plans to be pared back significantly given the deteriorated demand-side conditions and the considerable uncertainty.
Thursday 10 November
– Italy. Industrial production is expected to correct by 3.3% mom in September after +4.3% mom in August, and the figure might even be revised down since it is likely skewed by the seasonal adjustment issues typical of this month. Production should be up 0.8% qoq, which would ensure a recovery in GDP in 3Q11 of at least 0.1% qoq. The trend in orders, coupled with the trend in inventories, signals that, at least through to year-end 2011 and early 2012, it is reasonable to expect a further slowdown in productive activity and GDP growth.
– France. Consumer prices should be up 0.2% mom. Inflation is estimated at 2.3% yoy vs. 2.2% yoy before. On the harmonised measure, inflation is estimated at 2.4% yoy, unchanged from September. Pressures on consumer prices are largely exogenous and, in October particularly, should stem from food prices, since petrol prices suggest a zero or slightly negative contribution. French inflation should drop below 2% at year-end 2011. In 2012, the trend in consumer prices is expected to average 1.5% yoy, although we do not rule out upside risks since hikes in direct taxation are likely. The government has revised its growth estimates for 2012 to 1.0% from 1.75% before; an additional package of measures totalling some EUR 9Bn will be needed to meet the budget targets. The measures might be approved by year-end and might include a VAT hike.
– Import prices are expected to be down -0.1% mom in October, after +0.4% mom in September. The expected fall should be due to the exceptionally sharp correction in the oil price at the start of the month, vs. the levels seen in the first half of September.
– The trade balance is expected to widen moderately to USD -46.5Bn in September from USD – 45.6Bn in August, with exports slowing and a more subdued trend in imports. On the exports front, commercial aircraft should be up, following the steep fall in August. With regard to imports, oil should be broadly steady, while autos should slow as the trend stabilises in the wake of the Japanese earthquake. The BEA has assumed a widening of the real deficit in September: thus, in the event of stabilisation close to the August level, the contribution of the foreign channel to 3Q11 GDP growth would be larger than that implied in the advance estimate (0.2 pp).
– Spain. The 3Q11 advance estimate should show GDP stagnating after 0.2% in 2Q11. The stagnation might continue through to year-end and growth could even slip into recession territory in 2012. The indications on the public finances are hardly encouraging and the government that wins the 20 November elections will likely have to push through an additional package totalling around two percentage points of GDP. We expect GDP growth in Spain to amount, at best, to 0.3% in 2012 after 0.7% in 2011.
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).
Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.
Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.
Source: BONDWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department