agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 10-14 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)

Makroökonomische Daten – 10-14 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .   


          In the Euro area, given that the focus will remain on Greece and changes to the EFSF, the few economic data due out should show a fall in industrial production in France and the entire Euro area (and only a partial bounce in Italy after three months on the slide), while the final estimate of Euro area inflation should confirm the 3% recorded in September (with a core CPI of 1.7%).
          However, we expect inflation to return nearer to the ECB target next spring.
          The coming week is thin on data in the United States. The focus will be on the minutes of the FOMC meeting. With respect to the September data, retail sales should be up sharply, driven by auto; import prices should be down again on the correction in energy. Household confidence is expected to pick up very slightly in October. The August trade balance should show the deficit narrowing slightly.
          Monday 10 October
          Euro area

          – France. Industrial production might fall by an estimated -0.6% mom in August, after the unexpected bounce recorded in July (+1.5% mom). This would imply a year-on-year slowdown to 2.5% from 3.7% before. In any case, the good July figure leaves output on course for growth of 0.9% qoq in the third quarter. But the surveys point to a slowdown in the coming months.
          – Italy. Industrial production is expected to rebound by 0.3% mom in August after falling in each of the previous three months. Year-on-year output, both raw and adjusted for working days, is estimated at -2.7% yoy in August, which would leave production on course for a contraction of -1.2% qoq in 3Q11, vs. +1.3% qoq in 2Q11. The surveys point to a further slowdown in activity over the coming months.

          United States

          – Bond markets closed for Columbus Day.

          Tuesday 11 October
          United States

          – The minutes of the September FOMC meeting will be important for the light they shed on the debate to expand the monetary stimulus. The minutes will show a broad consensus on other actions via 1) more explicit information on the levels of the macroeconomic variables; 2) reduction in the interest paid on reserves. It appears from recent speeches that the three dissenters in August and September are against new measures, while many members of the majority have not said whether they are in favour of further action or not.

          Wednesday 12 October
          Euro area

          – France. Inflation is estimated at 2.3% yoy in August (2.5% harmonised) vs. 2.2% yoy in July.
          Consumer prices should be steady over the month. The year-on-year increase is largely due to energy. As in other Euro area countries, inflation is only expected to subside early next year.
          – Industrial production is expected to be down -0.5% mom in August, vs. +0.9% mom in July, implying a year-on-year slowdown from 4.2% to 2.4%. The figure would leave the quarterly dynamic on track for growth of 0.2% qoq in the third quarter, roughly in line with the 0.3% qoq seen in 2Q11, which would not determine a meaningful upturn in GDP after the spring weakness. The indications are for output to slow further in the coming months.
          Thursday 13 October
          United States

          – The trade balance should the deficit narrowing slightly to USD 44.3Bn, from USD 44.8Bn in July. Exports should be up, in light of the data on commercial aircraft and machinery orders.
          Imports should correct, due mainly to energy prices, despite increased auto imports from Japan as recorded in the Japanese trade balance data.

          Friday 14 October
          Euro area

          – The final August estimate should confirm Euro area inflation at 3% yoy vs. 2.5% yoy before.
          Consumer prices should be up 0.7% mom in August. The core index is expected to be up two-tenths at 1.7% yoy. Our forecast is for inflation to near the ECB target only in the spring, and to fall below the target only at year-end 2012.
          United States
          – Import prices are expected to be down -0.5% mom in September, after -0.4% mom in August, in the wake of the fall in the oil price (-11% during the month); USD depreciation will exert some slight upward pressure on goods ex-energy.
          – Retail sales are expected to pick up sharply in September, thanks mainly to auto. Total sales should be up +1% mom; sales ex auto are expected to be up 0.3% mom, showing a small increase in petrol. Auto sales were very strong in September (+7.8% mom), thanks to the normalisation of supply following the bottlenecks caused by the Japanese earthquake.
          Discretionary spending, in light of the weekly data, should show a positive dynamic despite the fluctuations seen during the month due to hurricane Irene.
          – The preliminary estimate of consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan should stabilise in October close to the September level, rising to 60 from 59.4. The confidence indices fell further in the first two weeks of October, after stabilising somewhat in September, and they now stand at the mid-2009 levels.


          Appendix
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