agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 14-18 November 2011 (Englisch)

Makroökonomische Daten – 14-18 November 2011 (Englisch) .   

          In the Euro area, the advance estimate of 3Q11 GDP should show the first effects of the crisis on the real economy. We estimate GDP growth of 0.4% qoq in Germany and Holland and 0.3% qoq for France and Euro area average.

          The outlook is for the cycle to weaken further around year-end. Euro area industrial production should be down 2.5% mom in September, given the disastrous trend in Germany, Italy and France. The ZEW survey will be impacted by the markets’ performance this last month, falling from -48.3 to -55 in November. Euro area should be confirmed at 3.0% yoy.

          Next week brings a slew of data in the United States. On the activity front, the November surveys and the industrial production figures for October should confirm the positive dynamic in the manufacturing sector. October retail sales should be up slightly after the strong gain recorded in September; new starts and building permits should confirm a broadly stagnant residential building sector. On prices, the CPI and PPI should show falls in October as a result of energy and modest growth in the core indices.

          Monday 14 November

          Euro area

          Industrial production is expected to be down 2.5% mom in September, given the disastrous performance in virtually every Eurozone country. Output should still be up 1.0% qoq in 3Q11 given the robust gains in July and August. We expect further falls at year-end, in line with the confidence survey indications.

          Tuesday 15 November

          Euro area

          Euro area GDP should be up 0.3% qoq in 3Q11 after 0.1% qoq in 2Q11. The recovery will be short-lived since we expect stagnation or a mild recession between now and year-end. Next year Euro area GDP should expand by 0. 6% at best, after 1.1% this year.

          Germany. German GDP is expected to expand by 0.4% qoq and 2.3% yoy. There will be no details but the driver should once again be export demand and moderately resilient investments. We project 4Q11 growth of just 0.1% qoq. Germany will slow to 0.9% in 2012 from 2.9% in 2011. Germany. The ZEW index will be down again in November, falling to -55 from -48.3 in October, given the ongoing uncertainty on the financial markets.

          France. French GDP is expected to grow by 0.3% qoq (1.5% yoy) in 3Q11 after stalling in the spring. We expect a contribution of 0.3% qoq from domestic demand thanks to a partial recovery in private consumption. Exports should add 0.1% to the quarter-on-quarter dynamic, while inventories should be down. The real and confidence data are consistent with stagnant GDP in the fourth quarter. In yearly average terms, the French economy should slow to 0.6%, from an estimated 1.6% for 2011.

          United States

          The October PPI is expected to be down -0.1% mom, after +0.8% mom in September. The energy component should be key to the modest trend in the overall index. The core PPI should be up +0.2% mom, in line with trend.

          Retail sales are expected to be up 0.3% mom in October, slowing from +1.1% mom before. In October auto sales should be a positive factor, though far less so than in September: sales ex auto should be up 0.2% mom. Weekly sales were generally weak, partly on account of the inclement weather. In real terms, the data should be slightly positive, in a month in which prices are expected to be up just 0.1% mom.

          The NY Fed Empire index is expected to improve to 1 in November from -8.48 in October, gradually closing the gap that opened up with the ISM. The October Empire breakdown was more positive than was indicated by the composite index, with orders, deliveries and payrolls above zero.

          Wednesday 16 November

          United States

          The CPI should be unchanged in October, after rising by +0.3% mom in September. The core CPI should show another very moderate gain of +0.1% mom, as in September. Energy should be down heavily, contributing to the moderation of the headline index. Apparel should be down again, the second straight fall after several months of average gains of 1.2% mom, on account of commodities and price hikes in exporter nations. The housing sector will show an acceleration in rents, while notional rents should stabilise around 0.1% mom. Auto prices should turn moderate again after the uptrend seen in the summer months on the back of the supply-side problems due to the Japanese earthquake.

          Industrial production should be up a robust +0.4% mom in October, in light of the positive indications on hours worked in manufacturing seen in the employment report. Manufacturing sector output should be up 0.5% mom, despite more modest growth in auto activity and an ISM production index around the 50 mark. Utilities should hold back the overall output dynamic.

          Thursday 17 November

          Euro area

          Inflation should be confirmed at 3.0% yoy in October, giving a month-on-month movement of 0.3% mom. The dynamic ex food and energy is expected to be steady at 1.9% yoy. Euro area inflation is expected to fall back below 2% by spring 2012; the economic slowdown will hold back costs, wages and prices.

          United States

          New starts should fall to 610k in October, only partially eroding the surge to 658k in September. The October fall should be due to the volatile multi-family unit segment, which was behind the September bounce. Permits are expected to improve to 605k in October, from 589k in September, here too on the back of movements in the multi-family segment. Overall, the trend in the residential building sector remains virtually stagnant if measured on the single-family unit segment.

          The Philadelphia Fed index should correct to 5 in November from 8.7 in October. Following the weakness seen in August and September, in October the index comfortably regained the June-July levels. The October survey breakdown was positive, showing a robust bounce in orders and deliveries; however, the October recovery returned the index well above the level suggested by the relationship with the ISM.

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