agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 17-21 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)

Makroökonomische Daten – 17-21 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .   


          In the Euro area, the ongoing uncertainty should have further dented business and consumer confidence. We expect the ZEW, which is particularly sensitive to market performance, to fall to -49 (-43.3), while the IFO should slip to 106.3 from 107.5. The INSEE composite index is estimated at 98 vs. 99 before.
          The coming week is packed with data in the United States. The first October sector surveys should confirm the improvement from the August lows. September industrial production should show a moderate gain; starts, permits and existing home sales should show some small improvements. Turning to prices in September, the CPI should show another relatively robust gain, with core inflation above 2% yoy for the first time since November 2008. The PPI should
          show a substantial gain on the headline index, while the core index should be in line with the +0.2% mom trend.


          Monday 17 October

          United States
          – The NY Fed Empire index should improve further, rising to -1 in October from -8.8 in September. The gap between Empire and ISM has opened up to a degree not justified by the historical relationship. Last month the Empire actually worsened further from August, in contrast to all the other surveys, which signal gains from the August downturn. The 2H11 data should be better than those seen in 1H11.
          – Industrial production is expected to be up 0.3% mom in September. Based on the growth in hours worked in manufacturing, sector output should be up 0.2% mom, while utilities should show a weather-induced acceleration.


          Tuesday 18 October

          Euro area
          – The ZEW index will again be affected by the volatility on the financial markets in October and by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding a rapid institutional solution to the crisis. The expectations index is expected to fall to -49 from -43.3, well below the long-term mean but still above the post-Lehman low (-63.3). The present situation index should fall to 35 from 43.6, remaining well above the long-term mean.
          – September auto registrations will provide insight into the durable goods trend at the end of summer; we expect growth of around 1.0% mom vs. 7.7% mom in August. The retail sales and auto registration data for July and August are consistent with an upturn in Euro area consumption of 0.2-0.3% in the summer months.

          United States
          – The PPI should be up 0.4% mom in September (after no change in August), driven by high energy prices in the first part of the month. The core index should show be up 0.2% mom, after +0.1% mom in August. The upturn in auto prices should support the index after the slide of -0.4% mom seen in the sector in August.


          Wednesday 19 October

          United States
          – The CPI is expected to be up 0.4% mom in September (3.9% yoy). The headline index should be boosted by a positive contribution from petrol: the correction in prices seen during the month is smaller than that included in the seasonal adjustment. The core index should be up 0.2% mom, in line with the recent trend, driven again by the increase in shelter (rents and notional rents), auto and apparel. Education might also accelerate, following the 0.3% mom posted in August.
          The core CPI would thus show a movement of 2.1% yoy vs. 2% yoy in August.
          – New starts are expected to grow to 585k units ann. in September, vs. 571k in August. The employment report showed 26k payroll growth in construction; building activity should be concentrated in multi-family homes in light of the upward pressure on rents. Permits should fall slightly in September, easing to 615k from 625k in August, gradually closing the gap with starts. The NAHB confidence survey for September showed a fall to 14 from 15 in August, with indications of a deterioration in both current and future sales.
          – The Fed publishes the Beige Book ahead of the FOMC meeting at the start of November. The report should signal moderate growth in activity, still uneven across regions but with some added momentum compared with the previous month, given the improvement in the surveys. No significant news is expected on the labour market and prices, clearing the way for further readiness from the FOMC to bolster growth.


          Thursday 20 October

          Euro area
          – Consumer morale is seen at -21 from an earlier -19.1 in October mostly on the news flow on the crisis. In face of protracted uncertainty households may have cut spending plans further.
          – Germany. We expect producer prices to rise slightly to 5.6% yoy in October, from 5.5% yoy before, on the back of residual energy sector pressures. In the coming months, the producer price trend is expected to slow, although tensions cannot be ruled out over energy and food prices which are more keenly affected by the trend in commodities.

          United States
          – The Philadelphia Fed index should rise to -7 in October from -17.5 in September. The relationship between Philly Fed and ISM would imply a positive value for the regional index and we expect the gap between the two indices to narrow towards normal in the coming months, indicating a moderate recovery in growth.
          – Existing home sales are expected to fall to 5M units ann. in September, from 5.03M in August. In recent months pending home sales have remained broadly steady and last month sector sales surprisingly rose by +7.7% mom, making a small correction likely in September. The recent fall in mortgage rates might help lend some modest but positive support to the real estate market.


          Friday 21 October

          Euro area
          – Germany. We expect the IFO index to fall to 106.3 in October from 107.5 before; this would still leave the index above the long-term mean (100.6). The index of the present situation is expected to slip to 116.5 from 117.9 (long-term mean: 123.3). We expect expectations threesix months forward to correct further to 96.8 from 98.0 before, given the deterioration in demand-side conditions and the growing uncertainty. The global PMI in September signalled a slowdown in manufacturing activity vs. the start of the summer. The IFO remains at levels consistent with an expansion in the German economy at the start of autumn, albeit at a more subdued pace (0.3% qoq) than that estimated for the summer months (0.6% qoq).
          – France. The INSEE composite index is expected to fall to 98 from 99 before. We expect a revision to expectations amid the decline in demand the rise in inventories flagged up in the September survey. We expect the French economy to stagnate at year-end.


          Appendix
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