agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 18 – 22 Juli 2011 (Englisch)

Due out in the Euro area are the first July confidence surveys (German ZEW and IFO, French INSEE, Euro area PMI and consumer confidence), which should show the negative impact on the sentiment of the current financial turbulence and the tougher than expected austerity packages in major countries like Spain and Italy. The focus will clearly remain on the debt crisis, fuelled by the chance that an emergency EU summit may be called at any time to frame the details of the second aid package for Greece.   

          The coming week is thin on data in the United States, with the exception of the residential real estate market. In June, new starts and permits should stay within the range seen in recent quarters, with starts showing a moderate improvement and a downturn in permits; existing home sales are expected to be up in light of the positive pending home sales data. NAHB confidence should rise in July after falling heavily in June. The Philadelphia Fed index should pick up in July after the negative June figure.

          Monday 18 July

          United States

          – The NAHB confidence index should pick up in July, rising to 15 after falling unexpectedly to 13 in June, a level last seen in September 2010. Even though the real estate market remains weak, the stabilisation of the data inside a corridor indicates a strong chance of a modest upturn in confidence, in light too of the good pending home sales figures that indicate an ongoing fall in inventories of unsold existing homes.

          Tuesday 19 July

          Euro area
          – Germany. The debt crisis and its repercussions on the markets may have depressed the ZEW in July too: we estimate -12 vs. -9 before, well below the long-term mean. The view of the present situation might also be affected by the recent events, falling to 86 from 87.6 in June (the high of 91.5 was recorded just two months ago).

          United States
          – New starts are expected to rise to 575k in June, from 560k in May. The growth in new starts

          should be more pronounced in the multi-family unit segment. New starts in the first six months of the year were extremely volatile, partly on account of weather factors, but the medium-term trend remains virtually stagnant. Permits should fall to 600k from 609k in May, returning close to the new start levels.

          Wednesday 20 July

          Euro area
          – The index of consumer confidence (EU Commission survey) is expected to fall to -11 from -9.8, due to the flow of bad news on the debt crisis and the even more swingeing fiscalcorrection to be borne by households in major countries like Italy and Spain.Weekly Economic Monitor

          – Sales of existing homes should rise to 5M units ann. in June, in light of the positive pending home sales figures, which rose strongly in May. Pending home sales signal improvements in both June and July and indicate that the May weakness should have diminished to some degree. In any case, sales of existing homes too, like the other residential real estate sector indicators, remain stagnant and continue to be heavily affected by the still substantial stock of unsold and repossessed homes.

          Thursday 21 July

          Euro area

          – The composite PMI might slip to 52.5 in July from 53.3 before, confirming the gradual slowdown in the cycle that started last month. The services index is estimated at 53.3 vs. 53.7 before; the correction in manufacturing should be slightly steeper (to 51.4 from 52.0) though less so than in past months.

          United States

          – The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to 7 in July from -7.7 in June. The June survey breakdown was negative, like the activity index, with orders and deliveries falling and employment only very slightly up. This, however, if not the picture that emerged from the June ISM, which has risen to 55.3 since May with production and orders above 50 (54.5 and 51.6 respectively), gaining slightly from May. The employment component also improved to high levels (59.9). The details from the July-August surveys will be important in assessing the duration and extent of the slowdown seen in recent months. For now, the signals from the surveys are mixed, while the actual data, such as June non-farm payrolls, are very weak.

          Friday 22 July

          Euro area

          – France. The INSEE composite index should fall to 106 in July, after the unexpected bounce to 109 seen in June. French business confidence is still close to the recent highs (110 in March). The index is thus still consistent with an expansion in manufacturing activity, albeit at a more modest pace than at the start of the year.

          – Germany. The IFO is expected to fall to 114.3 in July after surprisingly climbing to 114.5 in June. German business confidence would still be close to the all-time highs in the wake of buoyant export orders, notably from the emerging countries. We expect a correction in the present situation (to 123 from 123.3) and also in expectations (to 105.8 from 106.3).

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