agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 18 – 22 Juli 2011 (Englisch)

Due out in the Euro area are the first July confidence surveys (German ZEW and IFO, French INSEE, Euro area PMI and consumer confidence), which should show the negative impact on the sentiment of the current financial turbulence and the tougher than expected austerity packages in major countries like Spain and Italy. The focus will clearly remain on the debt crisis, fuelled by the chance that an emergency EU summit may be called at any time to frame the details of the second aid package for Greece.   


          The coming week is thin on data in the United States, with the exception of the residential real estate market. In June, new starts and permits should stay within the range seen in recent quarters, with starts showing a moderate improvement and a downturn in permits; existing home sales are expected to be up in light of the positive pending home sales data. NAHB confidence should rise in July after falling heavily in June. The Philadelphia Fed index should pick up in July after the negative June figure.

          Monday 18 July

          United States

          – The NAHB confidence index should pick up in July, rising to 15 after falling unexpectedly to 13 in June, a level last seen in September 2010. Even though the real estate market remains weak, the stabilisation of the data inside a corridor indicates a strong chance of a modest upturn in confidence, in light too of the good pending home sales figures that indicate an ongoing fall in inventories of unsold existing homes.


          Tuesday 19 July

          Euro area
          – Germany. The debt crisis and its repercussions on the markets may have depressed the ZEW in July too: we estimate -12 vs. -9 before, well below the long-term mean. The view of the present situation might also be affected by the recent events, falling to 86 from 87.6 in June (the high of 91.5 was recorded just two months ago).

          United States
          – New starts are expected to rise to 575k in June, from 560k in May. The growth in new starts

          should be more pronounced in the multi-family unit segment. New starts in the first six months of the year were extremely volatile, partly on account of weather factors, but the medium-term trend remains virtually stagnant. Permits should fall to 600k from 609k in May, returning close to the new start levels.

          Wednesday 20 July

          Euro area
          – The index of consumer confidence (EU Commission survey) is expected to fall to -11 from -9.8, due to the flow of bad news on the debt crisis and the even more swingeing fiscalcorrection to be borne by households in major countries like Italy and Spain.Weekly Economic Monitor

          – Sales of existing homes should rise to 5M units ann. in June, in light of the positive pending home sales figures, which rose strongly in May. Pending home sales signal improvements in both June and July and indicate that the May weakness should have diminished to some degree. In any case, sales of existing homes too, like the other residential real estate sector indicators, remain stagnant and continue to be heavily affected by the still substantial stock of unsold and repossessed homes.


          Thursday 21 July

          Euro area

          – The composite PMI might slip to 52.5 in July from 53.3 before, confirming the gradual slowdown in the cycle that started last month. The services index is estimated at 53.3 vs. 53.7 before; the correction in manufacturing should be slightly steeper (to 51.4 from 52.0) though less so than in past months.

          United States

          – The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to 7 in July from -7.7 in June. The June survey breakdown was negative, like the activity index, with orders and deliveries falling and employment only very slightly up. This, however, if not the picture that emerged from the June ISM, which has risen to 55.3 since May with production and orders above 50 (54.5 and 51.6 respectively), gaining slightly from May. The employment component also improved to high levels (59.9). The details from the July-August surveys will be important in assessing the duration and extent of the slowdown seen in recent months. For now, the signals from the surveys are mixed, while the actual data, such as June non-farm payrolls, are very weak.


          Friday 22 July

          Euro area

          – France. The INSEE composite index should fall to 106 in July, after the unexpected bounce to 109 seen in June. French business confidence is still close to the recent highs (110 in March). The index is thus still consistent with an expansion in manufacturing activity, albeit at a more modest pace than at the start of the year.

          – Germany. The IFO is expected to fall to 114.3 in July after surprisingly climbing to 114.5 in June. German business confidence would still be close to the all-time highs in the wake of buoyant export orders, notably from the emerging countries. We expect a correction in the present situation (to 123 from 123.3) and also in expectations (to 105.8 from 106.3).


          Appendix
          Analyst Certification

          The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

          Important Disclosures
          This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
          Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
          This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
          No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
          This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
          Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
          Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
          US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

          Valuation Methodology

          Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

          Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

          Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

          Source: BONDWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department

          Normal 0 14 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4