agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 20 – 24 Juni 2011 (Englisch)

In the euro area, the round of monthly surveys in June should confirm that growth is on a slower path, in the industrial sector in particular..    

          We expect the IFO index to drop to 113.6, the ZEW to -2.0, and the INSEE to 106. The composite PMI is forecast to decline again in June, to 55.4 from 55.8. This month’s correction could be stronger in services (55.6) than in manufacturing (54.4), in the wake of the three-point drop in May. But the focus is likely to rest on the European summits (Eurogroup, Ecofin and European Council) and Greek political developments.
          In the United States the main event will be the FOMC meeting. The Fed should announce the end of its Treasury bond purchase program, in place since November 2010, and open a pause, during which its monetary policy stance will remain unchanged, to assess the length of the current cyclical slowdown. Impending economic data referred to May will provide signals of a stagnation of new and existing home sales, and of a modest rebound in durable goods orders.
          The third estimate of 1Q 2011 GDP should bring a slight upgrade.

          Monday 20 June
          Euro area

          * The labour cost in the euro area is forecast to have accelerated in the first quarter 2011, to 1.8% y/y from 1.6% y/y, as a result of a rise in the wages component, albeit at a slower pace than the acceleration in contract-based wages in some euro area countries.
          * The Ecofin will give a final look at the 5 regulation and the directive reforming the economic governance of the EU. The council will also finalise the recommendations to the member States as foreseen by the European semester process and debate the regulation on OTC derivatives. In the morning the Eurogroup will resume the meeting started on Sunday 19th, and devoted to the Greek crisis.
          * Germany. Producer prices are estimated to have slowed by 0.1% m/m and 6.0% y/y, from a peak of 6.4% y/y in February, thanks to the gradual easing of pressures upstream of the production chain.

          Tuesday 21 June
          Euro area

          * Germany. The debt crisis and its repercussions on the markets may have depressed the ZEW index in June, to -2.0 from 3.1 the previous month, well below the long-term average.
          Assessment of the current situation may also be affected by the events of the past month, and therefore suffer a drop to 88.
          * The Greek parliament is expected to held a confidence vote on the Papandreou government, following Friday’s reshuffle.
          United States
          * Sales of existing homes are expected to have dropped to 4.8 million ann. from 5.05 million in April. Pending home sales corrected sharply in April, providing negative indications on the sale of existing homes, with a forecast contraction of 4.8% m/m.
          Wednesday 22 June
          Euro area

          * The consumer confidence index is forecast to drop to -11 from -9.8 the previous month, as a result of negative news flows, on the debt crisis in particular.
          * Industrial new orders are estimated to have grown by 0.6% m/m in April, recovering from a 1.6% m/m drop in March. Indications provided by the PMI and confidence surveys in April pointed to only a modest slowdown (what’s more, from high levels).
          * France. The INSEE synthetic index is expected to drop to 106 from a previous level of 107, still above the long-term average (99). The index is therefore still compatible with an expansion of
          manufacturing activity, although at more modest rates than at the beginning of the year.
          United States
          * The June FOMC meeting should mark the end of the growing monetary stimulus phase for the present cycle. The summer should bring a pause during which to assess the macroeconomic outlook, the market’s response to the unwinding of the asset purchase program, the developments of negotiations in Congress over the debt statutory limit, and the evolution of the European debt crisis. Macroeconomic projections should include a downgrading of the growth forecast, and an upgrading of inflation expectations. The meeting will be followed by Chairman Bernanke’s press conference, that should signal great caution given the uncertainty currently veiling the economic scenario, and indicate that the Fed is committed to acting as necessary to guarantee maximum employment within a framework of price stability. Bernanke should stress that the period of monetary policy stability, with extraordinarily low rates and unchanged balance sheet size, will last in function of the evolution of macroeconomic data.

          Thursday 23 June
          Euro area

          * The composite PMI could slide to 55.4 from a previous reading of 55.8, confirming the gradual slowdown of the cycle, which began last month. The services index is estimated to be come in at 55.5, down from 56.0. The correction in the manufacturing sector should be smaller (to 54.4 from 54.6 the previous month), given the drop of over three points incurred in May.
          United States
          * Sales of new homes in May are expected to have dropped to 315k from 323k in April. The NAHB construction industry confidence index has remained unchanged at very low levels (16) for several months, but in June it dropped to 13 with lower levels for current and expected sales.
          Friday 24 June
          Euro area

          * Germany. We forecast the IFO index to drop to 113.6 from 114.2 previously, thus staying on higher levels than the long-average (100.5). Specifically, we expect the assessment of the current situation to correct to more, to 118, after having stayed in line with the historical average for around four months. The forward-looking index could be down to 107.0 from 107,4. Growth in Germany will stay solid, but is expected to lose some steam already in the second half of this year, after peaking in 1Q 2011.
          * The European Council meets to discuss topics ranging from the conclusion of the European Semester and the reform of economic governance to migration from Africa. Greece is formally not a topic, but may come to the fore if required by circumstances. United States
          * In May, orders of durable goods should rebound by +1.7% m/m, after sliding by 3.6% m/m in April: positive indications came from aviation industry companies last month. Orders net of transportation are expected to be up by 0.5% m/m, after dropping by 1.6% m/m the previous month, reflecting the weak trend of activity in the manufacturing sector, as seen in the surveys.
          * The revised 1Q 2011 GDP growth estimate should come in at 2.1% q/q ann., vs. 1.8% t/t
          ann., with inventories and net exports likely to be revised upwards.

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