Makroökonomische Daten – 21-25 November 2011 (Englisch) .…
The macroeconomic data should not alter the outlook of a moderate recovery in the United States. The minutes of the FOMC meeting should confirm the committee’s readiness to launch a possible new purchasing programme. The small dip in orders and existing home sales in October does not alter the moderately positive outlook for the manufacturing sector and the ongoing stagnation in construction; personal income and spending should show moderate gains in both real and nominal terms.
– The Fed publishes the minutes of the early November FOMC meeting. The minutes will shed light on the views of the participants regarding a possible new securities purchasing programme. Specifically, some indication might be given on the timing and macroeconomic conditions that would trigger further monetary stimulus. The signals on the US economy have improved since the date of the meeting, but the risks and tensions on the markets stemming from the European crisis have increased sharply. In light of the forecasts for the labour market, for now the central projection is for possible MBS purchases by the end of 1Q12.
– France. The INSEE index is expected to fall to 96 in November from 97 before. Expectations
should be down amid shrinking demand and rising inventories, as signalled by the survey in
past months. The French economy will likely stagnate between 4Q11 and 1Q12.
– The composite PMI should remain in recession territory for the third straight month in November (our estimate 46 vs. 46.5 in October). The manufacturing index might fall further to 46.3 from 47.1; the service sector index, hit harder by the banking crisis, might slide even lower (our estimate 45.9 vs. 46.4). The level of the PMI indices is now consistent with GDP in negative territory.
– Durable goods orders are expected to be down -1.2% mom in October, largely due to the correction in the volatile commercial aircraft sector. Ex transportation, orders should correct slightly by -0.1% mom. The trend in orders should however remain moderately positive, in light of the data on orders in the surveys. Specifically, orders in the ISM survey rose to 52.4 in October, after three months below 50 (3Q11 avg. 59.5).
– Personal spending should be up 0.3% mom in October on the back of sales growth of +0.5% mom and the fall in the price of petrol. Personal income should be up 0.2% mom in light of the data on hours worked and wages published in the employment report.
– Consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan in November (final figure) should rise slightly to 64.8 from the advance estimate of 64.2. In mid-November the survey recorded gains in both components (coincident and expectations), while inflation expectations five years forward continued to trend down (to 2.6% from a high of 3% in June). All the confidence indices have picked up from the summer lows but remain flat: uncertainty over fiscal policy will again make itself felt in the coming months with the deadline of the payroll tax cut fast approaching (end-December).
Thursday 24 November
– Germany. The second reading of 3Q11 GDP should confirm the preliminary estimate of 0.5% qoq and 2.6% yoy (around twice the growth rate of the Euro area average). The breakdown should show the biggest contribution to growth coming from the rebound in consumption (our estimate 0.5% vs. -0.7% qoq); investments also accelerated (1% vs. 0.4% qoq), although construction shrank by a further tenth. International trade should have made a negative contribution to growth due to imports (our estimate 1.5%) outstripping exports (our estimate 1.1%). After the summer bounce, Germany should slow to virtually zero growth around YE11 and 1Q12.
– Germany. We expect the IFO index to fall to 105.8 in November from 106.4 before, still leaving it above the long-term mean (100.6). The coincident index is estimated at 116 vs. 116.7 before (long-term mean: 123.3). Expectations 3/6 months fwd will likely correct to 95.9 from 97 given the deteriorating demand-side conditions and the growing uncertainty. The IFO remains consistent with German economic expansion, although this will likely slow in 4Q11/1Q12 from 0.5% qoq in 3Q11.
– Italia. Consumer confidence is expected to fall further (for the sixth straight month), slipping to 92 in November from 92.9 in October. If confirmed, the figure would take household sentiment past the all-time low (in the almost 30 years of the series) recorded in July 2008 (92.7). Expectations, which have in the past proved a good consumption predictor, signals clear recession risks.
– In Belgium economic confidence is expected to fall to -11.5 from -10.4. Of particular interest will be the breakdown of the manufacturing survey, notably the trend in export orders, which is considered a leading indicator of trends in German industry and consequently in the Euro area as a whole. In any case, the contagion of the financial crisis to countries like Belgium (spread just below 300bps) might cause business lending flows to slow.
– Markets closed for Thanksgiving.
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