agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 24-28 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)

Makroökonomische Daten – 24-28 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .   


          In the euro area, the focus will be on the outcome of the European summits and the developments of the debt crisis. Due out are the remaining confidence surveys for October: PMI and EU Commission survey for the entire Euro area, business and consumer confidence in Italy and NBB survey should all confirm that the negative effect of the financial crisis is not yet over.
          The figures on the Lander will show inflation broadly steady in Germany in October.
          The data due out in the United States should confirm the moderate uptick in growth. September durable goods orders should be up ex transportation, new home sales should be little changed, while household income and expenditure should show relatively robust increases. Consumer confidence in October should stick at the low levels seen in previous months. The first 3Q11 GDP estimate is expected to show a marked acceleration after a virtually stagnant 1H, boosted by positive contributions from all final demand items.
          Monday 24 October
          Euro area

          – The composite PMI should be in recession territory for the second month (48.9 vs. 49.1 in September). The manufacturing index might fall further to 48.2 from 48.5, while the services index, hit hard last month by the flare-up in banking sector tensions, might be unchanged at 480.8. Should crisis-related market tensions ease, the confidence indices might stabilise in the coming months.

          Tuesday 25 October
          Euro area

          – Italy. Consumer confidence should be down again in October (for the fifth straight month), falling to 98 from 98.5 in August. Confidence has embarked on a dangerous downtrend which might take it close to the July 2008 lows (95.8). The effects of the fiscal tightening and the crisis of confidence on the financial markets should again be to blame.
          – In Belgium economic confidence is expected to fall to -10 from -9.4 before. The breakdown of
          the manufacturing survey will be of interest, notably the trend in export orders, seen as a predictor of trends in German industry and consequently in the Euro area as a whole.
          United States
          – Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is expected to rise slightly to 46.5 in October from 45.4 in September. The latest data from the surveys (Univ. of Michigan prel. for October and weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index) showed fresh corrections after the improvements seen at the start of the month, but Conference Board confidence stuck at the August lows in September too; accordingly, this index should show a modest recovery in October.
          Wednesday 26 October
          Euro area

          – Italy. Business confidence is expected to fall further to 94 in October from 94.5 in September, leaving it at its lowest level since start-2010. The restrictive effects of the austerity package should again be to blame, coupled with the economic uncertainty stemming from the debt and financial crisis.

          United States

          – Durable goods orders are expected to be down -0.3% mom in September, in the wake of a correction in commercial aircraft orders which had posted robust gains in the previous two months. Ex transportation, orders should be up 0.2% mom, based on the modest gains reported in the ISM.
          – New home sales are expected to rise to 300k in September from 295k in August, with activity and the level of the NAHB survey remaining in the narrow range seen for many months now.
          Thursday 27 October
          Euro area

          – The year-on-year M3 growth rate might ease to 2.7% in September from 2.8% yoy in August. The three-month moving average would stand at 2.5%. It will be important to see the resilience of loans to the private sector, and notably to businesses, since banks may have passed on the funding tensions to corporate customers.
          – Germany. According to the data from the Lander, consumer prices should be up one-tenth in October, leaving year-on-year inflation steady at 2.6% on the national measure and at 2.8% harmonised. During the month, the slight increase in energy prices should have been offset by a favourable seasonal dynamic. Inflation might start cooling as early as next month.
          – The EU Commission index of economic confidence is expected to be down for the eighth straight month in October, falling to 93.9 from 95 in September. Consumer confidence should be confirmed at -19.9 vs. -19.1 before, while the surveys signal a further dip in business sentiment both in industry (estimated -7) and in services (-1.5, which would be the first negative value for almost two years). The index is consistent with basically zero year-onyear GDP growth.

          United States
          – GDP growth should accelerate to +2.6% qoq ann. in the third quarter vs. 1.3% qoq ann. in 1Q11. The dynamic should be bolstered by a substantial upturn in consumption, which should show gains of over 2% qoq ann. vs. +0.7% qoq ann. in 2Q11. Even non-residential fixed investments should accelerate. Positive contributions are also expected from public spending and net exports.

          Friday 28 October
          United States

          – Personal income should be up 0.3% mom in September, in light of the positive payrolls and pay data seen in the employment report. Personal spending should be up 0.7% mom, showing a positive dynamic in real consumption (+0.4% mom) and prices (+0.3% mom).
          Durable goods consumption should accelerate vigorously, given the data on auto sales, while discretionary spending should also show a healthy trend. The core deflator should be up 0.2% mom, taking the trend movement to 1.8% yoy, from 1.6% yoy in August. The saving rate should fall to 4.3% from 4.5% in August.
          – Consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan in October (final figure) is expected to improve slightly to 58.5 from the advance figure of 57.5.


          Appendix
          Analyst Certification

          The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

          Important Disclosures
          This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
          Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
          This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
          No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
          This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
          Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
          Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
          US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

          Valuation Methodology

          Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

          Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

          Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

          Source: BONDWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department

          Normal 0 14 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4