Makroökonomische Daten – 24-28 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .…
The data due out in the United States should confirm the moderate uptick in growth. September durable goods orders should be up ex transportation, new home sales should be little changed, while household income and expenditure should show relatively robust increases. Consumer confidence in October should stick at the low levels seen in previous months. The first 3Q11 GDP estimate is expected to show a marked acceleration after a virtually stagnant 1H, boosted by positive contributions from all final demand items.
– The composite PMI should be in recession territory for the second month (48.9 vs. 49.1 in September). The manufacturing index might fall further to 48.2 from 48.5, while the services index, hit hard last month by the flare-up in banking sector tensions, might be unchanged at 480.8. Should crisis-related market tensions ease, the confidence indices might stabilise in the coming months.
– Italy. Consumer confidence should be down again in October (for the fifth straight month), falling to 98 from 98.5 in August. Confidence has embarked on a dangerous downtrend which might take it close to the July 2008 lows (95.8). The effects of the fiscal tightening and the crisis of confidence on the financial markets should again be to blame.
– In Belgium economic confidence is expected to fall to -10 from -9.4 before. The breakdown of
the manufacturing survey will be of interest, notably the trend in export orders, seen as a predictor of trends in German industry and consequently in the Euro area as a whole.
– Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is expected to rise slightly to 46.5 in October from 45.4 in September. The latest data from the surveys (Univ. of Michigan prel. for October and weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index) showed fresh corrections after the improvements seen at the start of the month, but Conference Board confidence stuck at the August lows in September too; accordingly, this index should show a modest recovery in October.
– Italy. Business confidence is expected to fall further to 94 in October from 94.5 in September, leaving it at its lowest level since start-2010. The restrictive effects of the austerity package should again be to blame, coupled with the economic uncertainty stemming from the debt and financial crisis.
– Durable goods orders are expected to be down -0.3% mom in September, in the wake of a correction in commercial aircraft orders which had posted robust gains in the previous two months. Ex transportation, orders should be up 0.2% mom, based on the modest gains reported in the ISM.
– New home sales are expected to rise to 300k in September from 295k in August, with activity and the level of the NAHB survey remaining in the narrow range seen for many months now.
– The year-on-year M3 growth rate might ease to 2.7% in September from 2.8% yoy in August. The three-month moving average would stand at 2.5%. It will be important to see the resilience of loans to the private sector, and notably to businesses, since banks may have passed on the funding tensions to corporate customers.
– Germany. According to the data from the Lander, consumer prices should be up one-tenth in October, leaving year-on-year inflation steady at 2.6% on the national measure and at 2.8% harmonised. During the month, the slight increase in energy prices should have been offset by a favourable seasonal dynamic. Inflation might start cooling as early as next month.
– The EU Commission index of economic confidence is expected to be down for the eighth straight month in October, falling to 93.9 from 95 in September. Consumer confidence should be confirmed at -19.9 vs. -19.1 before, while the surveys signal a further dip in business sentiment both in industry (estimated -7) and in services (-1.5, which would be the first negative value for almost two years). The index is consistent with basically zero year-onyear GDP growth.
– GDP growth should accelerate to +2.6% qoq ann. in the third quarter vs. 1.3% qoq ann. in 1Q11. The dynamic should be bolstered by a substantial upturn in consumption, which should show gains of over 2% qoq ann. vs. +0.7% qoq ann. in 2Q11. Even non-residential fixed investments should accelerate. Positive contributions are also expected from public spending and net exports.
Friday 28 October
– Personal income should be up 0.3% mom in September, in light of the positive payrolls and pay data seen in the employment report. Personal spending should be up 0.7% mom, showing a positive dynamic in real consumption (+0.4% mom) and prices (+0.3% mom).
Durable goods consumption should accelerate vigorously, given the data on auto sales, while discretionary spending should also show a healthy trend. The core deflator should be up 0.2% mom, taking the trend movement to 1.8% yoy, from 1.6% yoy in August. The saving rate should fall to 4.3% from 4.5% in August.
– Consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan in October (final figure) is expected to improve slightly to 58.5 from the advance figure of 57.5.
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