agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten: 26 – 30 März 2012 (Englisch)

In the euro area, the macro calendar will complete the round of March survey data (German IFO, EU Commission survey, business and household confidence in Italy), which should confirm that pessimism is easing compared to recent months, with year-on-year inflation dropping slightly in March, despite monthly increases fuelled by energy costs…..

          This week only a few data releases are due in the  United States. Household confidence is expected to be down in March, as a result of higher gasoline prices. Orders of durable goods are expected to have recovered in February, after contracting sharply in January. The third estimate of Q4 2011 GDP should come in at 3.2% q/q ann., from the previous 3% q/q ann.

          Monday 26 March
          Euro area
          –  Italy. We expect  consumer confidence to drop back in March (to 93.5 from 94.2), after rebounding more than expected in February, due in part to renewed concerns over employment and price increases, especially on high-frequency goods. Household confidence remains close to the historical lows hit between December and January, and signal no recovery in consumption.
          –  Germany. The  IFO index is expected to score its fifth consecutive monthly rise in March, to 110.4 from 109.6 February, in our estimation (vs. a long-term average of 100.7). The improvement will probably be driven by the  future expectations component (to 103.7 from 102.3), as opposed to a drop in  current situation assessments (to 117.3 from 117.5 in February). The latest data point to a possible recovery of the German economy in Q1 2012, after the -0.2% q/q GDP contraction recorded at the end of 2011.

          Tuesday 27 March
          United States
          –  Conference Board  consumer confidence  should be down in March to 68, from 70.8, offsetting only in part the almost 9 point rise in February. Other surveys also showed corrections in March, mostly due to higher energy costs. In February, consumer confidence had risen sharply both in terms of current conditions (to 45 from 38.8), and of the expectations component (88 from 76.7). The marked rise in gasoline prices should lead to a stronger than expected contraction.

          Wednesday 28 March
          Euro area
          –  Year-on-year M3 growth could accelerate to 2.7% in February, from 2.5% in January. The January rebound was aided by the removal of guaranteed interbank transactions carried out through central counterparts in the euro area at the end of the year, and incorporated only in part the initial impact of the first 36-month LTRO.  It will be important to verify the trend in February of loans al private sector, which had dropped slightly in January; we believe it will take a while longer for the full impact of the non-conventional measures adopted by the ECB to express itself.

          –  Italy. Business confidence  could rebound to 92 in March from 91.5 in February. Easing tensions tied to sovereign risk are expected to have fuelled expectations for an improvement in economic and credit conditions. In any case, business confidence remains below the long-term average (100.6) and a rebound would not justify particular optimism. However, confidence is also well off the lows reached in 2009 (71.1).
          –  Germany. Data from the Laender should be compatible with a 0.4% m/m rise in  consumer prices  in March, due by only one-tenth to the usual seasonal factors, and by three-tenths to higher energy prices. Inflation should level-off at 2.3%, both in terms of the national and harmonised rates. We expect the CPI to remain broadly stable in the months ahead (and to start dropping only as of the autumn).

          United States
          –  Durable goods orders are expected  to recover in February, by +2.8% m/m, after dropping in January (-3.7% m/m). The figure excluding transport should also show a marked improvement, and is estimated at +2.2%  m/m, from -3% m/m in January. The sharp contraction in January was due in part to the expiration of investment incentives, that had inflated data referred to the closing months  of 2011. Civil aviation orders should recover almost all the January decline, supported by Boeing’s recovery. Data should also show a significant slowdown in the positive trend of inventories recorded in Q4 2011.

          Thursday 29 March
          Euro area
          –  Germany.  Unemployment  may rise back marginally in  March, to 6.9% from 6.8% the previous month (an all-time in the 20-year data series). It should be said that the unemployment rate based on ILO standards has already been rising back since January (by one-tenth of a point, to 5.8%). The jobless figure in March could prove stable (as was the case in February).

          –  The European Commission’s economic confidence index could show a further improvement in March (for the third consecutive month), to 95 from 94.4 in February. Based on the preliminary estimate, consumer confidence  has improved to -19 from -20.3; business confidence could improve in the services sector (to zero) and change little in manufacturing (to -6). The level of the index remains compatible with an essentially stagnant euro area economy in the spring quarter.

          United States
          –  The third estimate of Q4 2011 GDP should come in at 3.2% q/q  ann. vs. the second estimate of 3% q/q ann. The revision should mostly be due to consumption, with services leading the way. Fixed investments are also expected to prove stronger, in light of non-residential construction spending data, revised based on  January data. Residential investments and net exports could be marginally revised downwards.

          Friday 30 March

          Euro area
          –  France. Retail sales could rebound by 0.6% in February, from -0.4% m/m in January. The year-on-year arte will be little changed at -2.1% from -2.2% y/y. Vehicle registrations suggest a rebound in sales after the January decline. In any case, sales would be on course for a decline in Q1 2012, which could translate into a contraction of GDP.
          –  Euro area inflation is estimated to come in two-tenths of a point lower in March, at 2.5% y/y. Risks are skewed to the upside,  in light of the further increases in fuel prices. Inflation may well stay above the ECB target throughout the year, driven primarily by energy cost tensions, and by higher tariffs and indirect taxes; in any case, the CPI net of the more volatile items will stay well below 2%.

          –  Italy. In March consumer prices should be up by 0.3% m/m in terms of the national  rate, and by 2.1% m/m (due to the rebound in the prices of seasonal goods, after the temporary drop in January-February) at the EU harmonised level. As a result, year-on-year inflation would drop by one-tenth both at the national level (to 3.2% y/y) and in harmonised terms (to 3.3% y/y). The monthly trend was mostly affected by higher fuel prices (higher by 3% m/m on average in the month, on top of the three previous months’ similar rises). Going forward, inflation could drop by only a few tenths between now and the end of the summer, and then rise back as of October, when the new VAT rate hikes will come into force.


          Analyst Certification

          The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

          Important Disclosures
          This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
          Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
          This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
          No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
          This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
          Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (
          Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
          US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

          Valuation Methodology

          Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

          Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

          Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site ( or by contacting your sales representative.

          Source: BONDWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department