agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten – 26-30 September 2011 (Englisch)

Makroökonomische Daten – 26-30 September 2011 (Englisch) .   


          In the Euro area, the slew of end-of-month data will confirm the substantial impact of the debt and financial crisis on the September confidence indices. We expect a further fall in the German IFO, the EU Commission indices and the ISTAT surveys of Italian households and businesses.
          The consumer price data in Germany, Italy and the entire Euro area will show inflation roughly steady in September (ahead of a significant fall around year-end 2011). The jobless figures for Germany, Italy and Euro area might show that the incipient labour market recovery has hit the buffers.
          The coming week is thin on data in the United States. In August, durable goods orders should be up largely thanks to commercial aircraft, while new home sales are expected to be largely unchanged. Personal spending and income should be up very slightly in August, whereas the core deflator should continue to trend upwards, moving into the Fed’s price stability range. The consumer confidence indices should pick up after plummeting in August. The 2Q11 GDP estimate should be revised up.
          Monday 26 September
          Euro area

          – Germany. The IFO index is expected to fall for the third straight month in September, to 107.7 from 108.7 in August. The risks lie to the downside. Expectations should be down (99.2 vs. 100.1) as should the view of the present situation (116.5 vs. 118.1). Confidence was likely dented by the financial crisis.
          – Italy. Consumer confidence should fall for the fourth straight month in September, slipping to 98.5 from 100.3 in August. Confidence has embarked on a dangerous downtrend that might take it close to the July 2008 lows (95.8). The tightening effect of the austerity package, plus the crisis of confidence on the financial markets, should again be to blame.
          United States
          – New home sales should be little changed at 300k in August, vs. 298k in July. Homebuilder indications through to August were for stability at the low levels seen in recent months.

          Tuesday 27 September
          Euro area

          – Year-on-year M3 growth might ease to 1.9% in August from 2% yoy in July. The threemonth moving average remains well below the ECB’s official target (4.5%). M1 growth might remain close to zero. The uptrend in loans to the private sector and particularly firms might have halted.
          United States
          – Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is expected to pick up to 46.5 in September from 44.5 in August. All the confidence indices have bounced from the recent August lows; even the Conference Board index should rally, but will still remain at levels not seen since year-end 2010. The weak labour market conditions last month will help keep a lid on the rise in confidence.
          Wednesday 28 September
          Euro area
          – Germany. The index of consumer prices is expected to be down -0.1% mom in September on both the national and harmonised measures. Year-on-year inflation would remain steady at 2.3% (and up one-tenth to 2.5% harmonised). The fall in prices due to September seasonality will be offset by the rise in fuel prices. Looking forward, inflation might fall sharply between year-end 2011 and start-2012.
          – Italy. Business confidence is expected to fall to 98.5 in September, after the unexpected improvement in August. The index would be back at least at the July 2010 lows. The tightening effects of the austerity package, plus the economic uncertainty due to the debt and financial crisis, will likely continue to dent business sentiment over the coming months.
          United States
          – Durable goods orders should be up 1% mom in August, after +4.1% mom in July, driven by a rebound in commercial aircraft orders. Ex transportation, orders are expected to be up 0.3% mom, vs. +0.8% mom in July.
          Thursday 29 September
          Euro area

          – Germany. The unemployment rate might remain steady at 7% in September, a 1991 low. The jobless total should fall further by around 10k (the rate of decline has slowed in recent months). Over the coming months, we expect the labour market in Germany to stabilise. The incipient slowdown in the economic cycle is not yet sufficient to drive up unemployment.
          – The EU Commission index of economic confidence is expected to fall for the seventh straight month in September, slipping to 96 from 98.3 in August. Consumer confidence might be confirmed at -18.9 vs. -16.5 before, and the surveys signal a sharp dip in business confidence both in industry (estimated -4.5) and services (1.5). The index is consistent with year-on-year GDP growth of close to zero.
          United States
           The 2Q11 GDP estimate should be revised up to 1.3% qoq ann. from the first estimate of 1%. The revision should be due to contributions from net exports, commercial building and inventories.

          Friday 30 September
          Euro area

          – According to the preliminary estimate, Euro area inflation might stick at 2.5% yoy in September, consistent with a three-tenth rise in prices during the month, driven by typical September seasonality and price hikes in the energy sector. In any case, in our view inflation is set to fall sharply between 4Q11 and 1Q12, falling below the ECB target in the spring.
          – The Euro area unemployment rate might remain steady at 10% for the fourth straight month.
          Given the fraught economic situation in several countries, the jobless rate might well rise again in the coming months, in contrast to the signs of improvement seen this last year.
          – Italy. Consumer prices on the national measure are expected to fall -0.1% mom in September (+0.3% mom in August). On the harmonised measure prices should accelerate to +0.7% mom from +0.4% mom. Inflation is expected to rise one-tenth to 2.9% yoy on the national measure and to be steady at 2.3% yoy harmonised. The impact of the VAT hike, in force as of 17 September, might have little bearing on the September data but could be substantial as of October.
          – Italy. The unemployment rate in 2Q11 might fall to 8% (vs. 8.2% in the previous quarter). In August too the jobless rate might have remained at 8%, as in July. Looking forward, the recovery in the labour market seen in the last 18 months might come to a halt given the stagnation in economic activity.

          United States

          – Personal spending is expected to be up 0.2% mom in August, slowing sharply from the 0.8% mom recorded the previous month. The retail sales data showed a slight fall in the auto sector and a barely positive dynamic in the aggregate used for the definition of overall personal consumption. Personal income, in light of the disappointing employment report data, should put in a small gain of +0.1% mom after +0.3% mom in July. The core deflator should be up 0.2% mom, and 1.7% yoy, thus moving into the Fed’s definition of price stability. Given that the total deflator should be up 0.3% mom, real terms spending and income should be down in August. The saving rate should be steady at 5%.
          – Household confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan in September (final) should confirm the gain seen in the advance figure (57.8), rising to 58.5. The weekly confidence indices showed very small gains around the middle of September.
          – The Chicago PMI is expected to slip to 56.2 in September from 56.5 in August. The August breakdown showed a deterioration vs. July, although most of the sub-indices remained well above 50. The indications from the other August surveys and the first September surveys lend weight to the forecast of another correction in the Chicago index.


          Appendix
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