agenda 4

Makroökonomische Daten : 5- 9 Dezember 2011 (Englisch)

In the Euro area the focus will be on the two key events, namely ECB Meeting and European Council, on 8-9 December, which might prove a turning-point (positive or negative, if the outcome is disappointing) in the debt crisis....     

          The October industrial production figures might be little changed month-on-month, whilst confirming the slowdown year-on-year. Retail sales and PMI indices should be in recession territory.

          The coming week is thin on data in the United States. The non-manufacturing ISM for November should confirm that the service sector has underperformed manufacturing in this recovery. The October trade balance should show the deficit largely unchanged, while household confidence should confirm a return to the early summer levels.

          Monday 5 December

          Euro area

          Retail sales are expected to bounce by 0.4% mom in October, mainly on the back of the growth recorded in both Germany and France. However, the trend in consumer confidence suggests fresh weakening in the coming months.

          The final reading of the composite PMI for November might confirm the flash estimate of 47.2 (vs. 46.5 in October but below 50 for the third month). The services index should also confirm the first reading of 47.8 (vs. 46.4 in October). The levels of the index are consistent with a for now mild recession in the Euro area.

          Italy. The cabinet unveils the crisis-fighting package, which could be passed by parliament by Christmas. A package totalling around EUR 20Bn is mooted, the aim being to achieve budget balance in 2013.

          United States

          The non-manufacturing ISM is expected to see little change, at 53.2 in November from 52.9 in October. Activity in the service sector should be expanding but not accelerating: in this recovery final demand for goods is growing at a robust pace, in line with past recoveries, but the dynamic in services is far more modest and well below average. The breakdown of the October survey was less positive than emerged from the composite index; last month activity and orders were down heavily on September, whilst remaining well above 50.

          Tuesday 6 December

          Euro area

          The breakdown of 3Q11 GDP should confirm the flash estimate of 0.2% qoq. Year-on-year growth would slow to 1.4% from 1.6%. The quarter should show growth in both consumption (estimate 0.3% qoq) and investments (0.4% qoq), while public spending should be unchanged and exports may have made a positive contribution of two-tenths. The point is that around year-end 2011/start-2012 there is a real risk of slightly negative GDP.

          Germany. Factory orders might bounce (by 1.5% mom) in October after three negative scorse in the summer months. The trend would still be downward, as shown by the slump in the year-on-year figure (our estimate 1.7% vs. 2.4%). For some months now the surveys have been signalling a slowdown in orders for Germany too, notably from abroad.

          Wednesday 7 December

          Euro area

          Italy. Industrial production is expected to be down again in October, falling by an estimated – 0.2% vs. -4.8% mom in September. This would imply a year-on-year contraction of -2.8% (both raw and adjusted for working days), not far off the previous month’s figure. 4Q11 should show a sharp contraction in industrial production (and GDP), which might continue into 2012.

          Germany. Industrial production is expected to bounce by 0.2% mom in October after the falls recorded in the previous two months. However, the trend remains downward (moderate cooling for now): year-on-year growth is estimated at 3.4% vs. 5.4% before. In Germany too industry should make a negative contribution to GDP in the current quarter.

          Thursday 8 December

          Euro area

          ECB meeting. The European crisis has degenerated significantly this last month. The news on EFSF II from the ECOFIN is not sufficient to change the course of events in the near term. The ECB remains the only institution that can act immediately. The announcement of a structured securities purchase programme would be fully justified, but we fear it will not yet secure a broad consensus on the Council. The ECB might introduce a 24-month or 36-month auction to ease the bank funding issues,. We expect a 25bps cut and rhetoric that clears the way for rates below the significant 1% mark by start-2012, since the repercussions of the crisis on the cycle risk being far more disastrous than the business and household confidence indices are able to capture.

          Friday 9 December

          Euro area

          The European Council could mark a turning point in the debt crisis. It is to be hoped that, in exchange for tighter fiscal control over member states, progress is made with a European vehicle (possibly with IMF involvement) that may rapidly intervene as a purchaser of substantial volumes on the government bond markets.

          France. Industrial production is expected to be down -0.2% mom in October after the steep contraction in September (-1.7% mom). Year-on-year growth would still jump to 2.7% from 2.3%. In any case, the sentiment surveys continue to signal a sharp slowdown in orders and output, impacting on the coming months.

          United States

          The October trade balance should show a balance little changed from September at USD – 43Bn vs. USD -43.1Bn. Both exports and imports should be down, partly on account of the fall in prices. Export volumes should be positive for autos and machinery. On the import front, the moderate fall in the oil price should moderate the dynamic.

          Consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan should stabilise at 64 (preliminary) in December, after three straight gains that returned the index to the July levels. The marked improvement in the Conference Board index in November closed much of the gap that had opened up between the two sentiment indicators in recent months. One key element of the Univ. of Michigan survey will be inflation expectations: the Fed is watching expectations closely to assess the case for expanding the monetary stimulus early in 2012.


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